Muffled whispers of irritation are now becoming outspoken criticism as a die hard loyalist of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa began speaking out last week against his plans to keep the Presidency and leadership of his new party, the Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP) within the reigns of his family, and particularly promote his son Namal Rajapaksa as presidential crown prince heir. The revelation that the former President’s actual choice as the next Presidential candidate is his son, above the former Defense Secertary, his brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, surfaced in India when he told The Hindu newspaper that Gotabhaya was likely to be a contender from the SLPP for the next Presidential election, but apparently only as a grudging space filler till Namal Rajapaksa came of political age.
When The Hindu newspaper queried as to his party’s Presidential Candidate, whether it will be a member of the family, or someone outside, his answer was:“My son Namal Rajapaksa cannot be a Presidential candidate since they have now raised the minimum age to 35 years, instead of 30, so he can’t be considered in 2019.” His reference to the age limit was concerning the 19th amendment to the constitution introduced by the current regime in 2015 which barsa person from contestingthepresidential election for a third term. Interestingly his order of Preference from his party to be Presidential candidate seems to be primarily himself, failing that his son, and as a ‘filler in’ of sorts for 5 years, his brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and failing that option brother Basil Rajapaksa and by the longest shot the comparatively politically subdued Chamal Rajapaksa. After all those considerations only does any other non-Rajapaksa being Presidential candidate seem to figure, in a kind of a distant after-thought, possibly impossible way.
It does seem that the former President spilt a lot of beans in India. Apart from revealing for the first time openly and unflinchingly his aims for his 32-year-old son, Mahinda Rajapaksa also revealed that he is considering ‘the view’ that despite the 19th Amendment that he can fight the elections and after ascending the Presidential seat ‘fight it out in court.’To the question by The Hindu as to, “Who will lead the SLPP into elections in 2019, given that you have completed two terms and according to the 19th Amendment that is the limit?” his answer was “I will lead the SLPP. There is a view that despite the Amendment I can fight elections and then fight it out in court.”
This shows once again the Rajapaksa dictatorship mentality. No matter what the legal bar, wriggle your way to power through whatever loophole and then when in power crush independent legal verdict with your political jackboots.
While the Mahinda Rajapaksa approach to power has not changed, neither has his scant regard for appreciation of senior non-Rajapaksa fellow politicians. It clearly seems that the former President has forgotten that the reason he fell from grace from his party, then the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and came to a point where one of his fellow partymen, the current President Maithripala Sirisena became an opponent, was because the Rajapaksas were using the party as a family heirloom and the country as a kind of anancestral dice. And in the same manner where his supporters began speaking out against him in end 2014, dissent has begun.
Kumara Welgama, an ardent Mahinda loyalist, was the first to speak out last week in the background of Rajapaksa’s India based revelations. “Mahinda Rajapaksa, whilst he was in power, treated his brothers differently and the outside ministers differently, as inferiors. That made the ministers turn against him and though, they professed to love him, secretly worked against him in the 2015 elections. And that’s the reason that led to his downfall.”He went on to say: “There are many veterans in our party who have a wealth of experience. It’s not right that they should be ignored and the crown should be passed on to a novice, to someone who has a long way to go.”
There is no doubt that if rationality was the test, almost all members of the SLPP, who are seasoned politicians will feel very much the same way as Welgamawith regard to Namal Rajapaksa, although they may not express it, fearing the Mahinda Rajapaksa wrath.
Meanwhile, if the opposition by the Rajapaksa brothers, Gotabhaya, Basil and Chamal Rajapaksa in the face of Namal being pushed to the Presidential cushion wasrestricted only to hushed rumours and the occasional speculation by the State-owned newspapers, there is now indication that this may change. Welgama’s blunt words expressed last week coming amidst subtle and non-public protests by the Rajapaksas and non Rajapaksaswithin the SLPP maymean that the former President may have some serious contemplation to do.
Meanwhile, with regard to the hesitancy of the former President to accept Gotabhaya Rajapaksa as the Presidential candidate, it is pertinent to dwell on the psychology of why the former President may fear Gotabhaya. It is known in the highest political circles that Mahinda Rajapaksa was a bit wary of his ruthless brother, the then all power wielding Defence Secretary, and used to blame him for some of the human rights violations that ultimately he had to shoulder as the President. Sri Lanka’s Criminal Investigations Department (CID) officials last month recorded a statement from the former President on the 2008abduction and torture of Keith Noyahr who was the Associate Editor of The Nation newspaper, after revelations that Noyahr was released by abductors only after a phone call by then President Mahinda Rajapaksa, to the then Defense Secretary. (Of course, Rajapaksas Joint Opposition has issued a statement querying why the then army commander, Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, presently a minister with the current regime is not being questioned, given that Noyahr’s abduction was following an article he wrote in his ‘military matters’ column titled ‘An army is not its commander’s private fiefdom’). While the JO allegation requires a whole write up on the matter, the fact remains that prior to the parting of ways between then Army Commander Sarath Fonseka and Defense Secertary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa following the war victory, the manner in which criticism was collectively tackled by the Rajapaksa administration was ominous.
What was in the Rajapaksa era considered as a strategic good cop, bad cop game in the highest echelons of power, during a time known for white van abductions and ruthless silencing of dissent, is now, likely having a trickle down effect in the Rajapaksa family. Mahinda Rajapaksa, knowing his brother Gotabhaya too well, seems reluctant to pass the Presidential reins to him in the obvious fear that by the time his son reaches the sufficient age to contest the Presidency, his brother may not be conducive to meekly pass the baton of power to his nephew.
The battle for the presidency will take place only in 2020 and although Rajapaksa’s party, the SLPP recorded a remarkable victory in the February local government election this year, continuation by Mahinda Rajapaksa to transport Sri Lanka to a feudal era is likely to hang over him, misted in the unknown and unexpected family intrigue that could unravel from now to 2020.
