Sri Lanka’s presidential poll of 2019 will be remembered for several aspects. The remarkable lack of serial violence was highlighted by local and international electoral monitors although two privately held media networks were castigated for having been partial towards one candidate. The record turnout – nationally put at 83% of the eligible voters – was an insight to the apparent polarisation on a communal basis of Sri Lanka’s voters.
The facts presents a different analysis. Both the major candidates, Sajith Premadasa and Gotabya Rajapaksa are from the majority Sinhala Buddhist population. There were a number of candidates from the Tamil community as well as from the islands Muslim populace. The results show that no minority leader came anywhere close even from voters in areas where the minority voters dominate.
Gotabya Rajapaksa won 6, 924,255 votes and Sajith Premadasa received 5,564,239 with 0.85% of the votes being rejected. The marxist alliance National People’s Power with the JVP in the lead seat, polled just 418,553. A former Sri Lanka Army commander, Mahesh Senanayake received 49,655
President Rajapaksa in his acceptance speech was forthright. He acknowledged that he was confident he would win with the votes from the majority Sinhala voters who are in the main Buddhists. He said he had asked the minority to join him and vote for him but that had not been the case. Yet as the new President he asked the minorities to join him and develop the nation together.
Some of the critics of his victory have opined that the Rajapaksa campaign promotes Sinhala Buddhist majoritarianism and point out to what they say is a glaring omission. There is no Muslim member in Cabinet or amongst the state Ministers appointed in the week after his vactory. The same critics point to the fact that there are Tamil members in government implying that the Muslims have been sidelined.
The optics may well suggest this scenario. An examination of the available facts becomes necessary. The Muslim minority partes of both Rauff Hakeem (SLMC) and Rishard Badurdeen (ACMC) consciously rejected advances made prior to the polls, to join the Rajapaksa dominated coalition and chose instead to back the other main candidate Sajith Premadasa.
On the other hand, Douglas Devananda and Arumugam Thindaman openly declared their support for the Rajapaksa campaign. Both find themselves in the Cabinet of Ministers.
The fact remians that the omission of any Muslim politicians within the Cabinet is a political decision. The community has not been ignored entirely.
A long serving member of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party is Faiszer Mustapha. He has served previous SLFP-led governments including as a Cabinet Minister in the Sirisena – Wickremesinghe government that came into play in January 2015. Mustapha has served in parliament since 2004 and has held a string of Deputy Ministerial roles as well as serving as Cabinet Minister of Provincial Councils and also a stint as the Minister of Sports.
President Gotabya Rajapaksa had offered Mustapha a State Ministerial role (higher in the pecking order to a deputy Minister) which Mustapha declined on the grounds that he believed that by being understanding and accommodating President Gotabya in his quest to trim expenditure and excess the position would be better offered to someone else.
Optics such as this however is not known to the wider public and that situation is exploited by those whose vested interests appear to wish to perpetuate and promote racism and eventually instability leading to a breach of the peace.
Sri Lanka’s new president has understood immediately that the same vested groups will attempt to destabilise the country, leading to a heavy military involvement. In turn that will fit in nicely with the trajectory that is being built up by the Diaspora that Gotabya Rajapaksa’s election as President spells danger to the minorities.
Sri Lanka’s new president has acted by renewing the measures bringing in the armed forces to help maintain law and order – a measure implemented immediately after the Easter Sunday attacks.
The truth of the matter remains that vested interests will be upping the ante with the aim of fostering some international opinion who have been suspicious of the change of government in Sri Lanka. Nations that have played along with the Wickremesinghe-led government in the hope of securing their version of a political settlement will now need to change the trajectory – especially so since President Rajapaksa has maintained that he is committed to a one Sri Lanka.
The Rajapaksa administration have thus far made bold economic decisions. Presidential Secretary Dr PB Jayasundera is thought to have been behind the significant tax cuts designed to kick start the economy – and widen the tax base in the process. The team appears formidable: Ajith Nivard Cabraal is the Senior Adviser to the Minister of Finance where the Treasury Secretary is Mr S R Attygalla, a protege of the once long-serving Treasury Secretary, Dr PB Jayasundera.
Sri Lanka is no different from a host of countries around the world – where ‘strongman’ rule has taken hold. Regionally Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamed even at 93 is well known for his strongman governance but Malaysia has progressed and is addressing large scale corruption.
In Indonesia, Joko Widodo – Jokowi, as the president is known, was seen as a self-made “man of the people” when he first came to power in 2014 – mild-mannered, jocular and with a well-documented love of heavy metal music and taking selfies.
But the years have shown him willing to make harsh political compromises and, despite serious challenges to Indonesia’s stated values of religious tolerance and social cohesion in recent years, his priorities remain infrastructure, economic reform and political stability. In between all of this he appointed his principal rival Prabowo Subianto as the Defence Minister. This appointment can be seen as prioritising such goals as he eyes a tangible legacy at the end of his second and final term.
Prabowo Subianto, 68, was born into a family steeped in Indonesian political privilege, his father went into exile for a decade from 1957 because of his alleged involvement with a separatist group in the region of Sumatra.
Mr Subianto eventually married the second daughter of the late authoritarian president Suharto – a move some in the military have argued helped his swift rise.
But by that time, allegations were already swirling of his involvement in bloody military operations in East Timor.
SIngapore for all its success is also an authoritarian government, India’s premier Modi is not entirely free of allegations of strongarm tactics and Pakistan has had a fearful political history with Generals mixed with corrupt politicians.
Wider away from Sri Lanka, plenty of countries have elected or appointed ‘strongarm’ leaders to help navigate away from long-standing problems.
From Venezuela to Hungary strongman leaders have taken hold of their nations’ progress. Even President Donald Trump was elected on a bandwagon of nationalism and lost key areas heavily populated by blacks and hispanics. Trump was not perceived as being racist or anti-black! The Philippines has Duterte and his famous stance on drugs is well documented.
At the end of the day President Gotabya Rajapaksa has won a fair mandate including around 500,000 votes from the Muslim community even if their political representatives did not support Rajapaksa at the presidential hustings.
Opinion is divided on whether Sri Lanka is polarised on communal lines. Helmy Ahmed a prominent member of the Muslim community was certain that indeed Sri Lanka was polarised along these lines. Mr Ahmed who was the person to first to share information on the Easter Sunday suicide bomber and leader Zahran with the autghorities (two years before the events of 2019) says there is a real need for a unified political alliance composed of the different Muslim factions. The aim he says would be to have at least 23 members of parliament in order that the interests of the Muslims are better served. Mr Ahmed believes that with such numbers in parliament the community will feel that much safer.
Many will say that Mr Ahmed is on wishful thinking: some of the more prominent Muslim members of this parliament have been the subject of allegations of corruption and even involvement with extremists. At the very least many have been tainted to the point that mainstream parties like the Rajapaksa led SLPP may actively disassociate themselves from this angle and prefer to seek election by the majority. However at a parliamentary poll the voting dynamics are different from the first past the post system in place for the Presidential election.
The polarisation of the communities has been helped by those with vested interests who promoted a fear psychosis amongst the majority that the country will be split if the Premadasa bid for the Presidency succeeded.
Much will depend on what President Rajapaksa will do to address the fears the minority communities have. The Rajapaksa plans on the economic front will play a large role where success will see the standards of living in the former conflict areas for instance rise. Housing and the return of lands appropriated during the war years is one of the more critical areas that the Rajapaksas are already looking at. Basil Rajapaksa the principal strategist behind this victory is said to be already ‘on the case’ and many analysts believe that with a view towards the future the Rajapaksa’s will deliver on the aspirations of the Tamil speaking population within the context of a one Sri Lanka concept.
Intrstd grps spin it their way
Results even in so called area in north gr
Muzza gov … faiszer …
Ppl of north also want part of nat narrative intrstd grp trying to sideline this process
Sp vote is being portrayed as a
Mahathir dominated
Duterte, indonesia, malaysia, greece, trump, argentina
Kabeer rishard rauff leaders
