Aren’t the three leaders egged on by power hungry followers and cronies; and looked at in horror and disgust by the distraught civil society, seeking to advance their personal power positions, ignoring the risks facing the state and the disgruntled and marginalized voters waiting for their next opportunity to show their dissent.
The current political turmoil can be compared to the parable of the three bears, despite aiding each other in accessing a beehive and ending up fighting with each other over their sole right to the honey, while precariously positioned on a branch overhanging a lake filled with crocodiles and piranhas.
The majority of the voters coming from poor and marginalized urban and rural worker / farmer households, especially those affected by environmental catastrophes and conflict /violence, have expressed their disenchantment with the coalition they voted in to office in January 2015 with hope and reliance.
The majority of these voters come from poor and neglected circumstances, particularly, those affected by natural disasters, violence and conflict. An unofficial survey of a sample group in Kurunegala and Anuradhapura revealed the following reasoning behind their rejection of representatives of the incumbent government at the recent local government polls.
- Inability of the government to deliver on key election promise of good governance , in particular, bringing to book the corrupt of the previous regime and zero tolerance of corruption under present governmentdespite the gains made on permitting freedom of speech and association, the right to information and the elimination of state sponsored terror.
(Some examples of cases of grand fraud and corruption which have been sidelined such as the Kalpitya power plant construction, Kandy and Matara Highway construction, MIG aircrafts purchase, Sri Lankan Airlines re-fleeting, Gin-Nilwala Dam construction, Coal imports scam that shocked the conscience of the Supreme Court, State property transfers to the benefit select groups in control of public enterprises, Railway tracks/bridges and signal light contracts, Securities frauds, Central Bank Greek Bonds deal and Bond scam and large scale Money Laundering scams. In addition, those responsible for violence and murder and making citizens disappear, have not been dealt with under the law. ( egs. Welikade extra judicial killings, Journalists, Weligama Riots etc)
- Dramatic rise in cost of living due to rise in food costs and other essential products. ( Coconuts at Rs. 100/= and fresh vegetables and fish/meat prices so very high; in addition to the high costs of transport, education and health due to the deterioration of state services)
- Lack of employment options in urban areas and livelihood development support in the rural sector (lack of local skilled labour not being addressed and met by importation of skilled labour from neighbouring countries).The promised one million jobs have been only a bad dream.
- Incompetence of government to provide on time and within required quality standards ( granular in place of prilled) supply of fertilizer to paddy farmers, purportedly due to corruption, has led to major crop failure and heavy losses when compounded by past losses incurred due to four seasons of repeated droughts and floods. The inability to service loans and meet daily needs have led farmers to mental anguish and even to contemplate suicide.
- Government is seen to be focusing on prestige projects and interests of big businesses at the expense of the basic needs the poor and marginalized majority.
- The failure of the elected representatives in effectively communicating with the voters since the last elections and not seen interested in serving the needs and aspirations of the voters
- The government is not only seen as failed in fulfilling its promise of pursuing socio economic reforms which lead to equitable income distribution but also in aggravating inequity through fraud and corruption.
The crocodiles in the lake are likened to the socio economic challenges facing the government in implementing beneficial reforms.The socio economic outlook over the balance 22 months of this coalition government appears to be weighed down by further risks:
- Heavy external debt repayments of US$ 2.6 Bill. in 2018, US$4.0Bill. in 2019 and US$ 3.5 Bill. 2020 in the absence of foreign exchange earning new ventures. The level of remittances from foreign employment are likely to reduce further.
- As of November 2017, Financial Action Task Force classification of Sri Lanka amongst the high risk countries and other monitored jurisdictions and the possibility of a further down grade from the grey list to the black list by year end. In such an eventuality there could well be a significant negative impact on Sri Lanka’s international credit ratings being downgraded and higher risks premiums being demanded on rollover of external debt and on new debt issues. If the Sri Lankan Banks as a consequence loose the entitlement to confirm letters of credit and all such LC’s will require external first class bank re-conformation, leading to the intermediation costs of imports to increase and the smooth flow of imported goods to an import dependent Sri Lanka to come under heavy stress, with food security and cost impact of risks passing down to the consumers.
- The recent revelations of the Auditor Generalthat the external loans taken have no corresponding revenue producing assets in the Sri Lanka’s balance sheet; and that there are significant off balance sheet and unaccounted loans and liabilitiesmay further down grade the creditworthiness of Sri Lanka in the eyes of investors and rating agencies. The Auditor General’s comments, including a reference to the liabilities for pensions being accounted on a pay as you go basis and not being recorded as a liability, appears to hint to the dreaded outcome that the fiscal gap(being the estimate of how much the government’s spending and debt obligations exceeds its revenues over a specified future period of time) is likely to be negative (Thus an acceptance that the state is not a “going concern” or even” bankrupt”?).
- The expected hike in US interest rates and possible lack of interests in Sri Lankan Sovereign Bonds due to political and other risks will lead to demand of higher risk premiums on rollover of old external debt and new sovereign bond issues
- Political instability and market risks limiting much needed local value adding foreign direct investment inflows
- Law enforcement officials may be reluctant to take bold professional investigation action in pursuit of the corrupt persons fearing reprisal following a change of government
- With provincial, presidential and parliamentary elections due in the next 3 years, the likelihood of fiscal discipline being abandoned in favour of vote catching handouts. These short term measures can lead to unaffordable levels of fiscal deficits and heavier external borrowing and higher levels of inflation.
- With the prospects of the outcomes of Geneva Human Rights Council Review later this year looming in the horizon, in the face of the apparent failure of the state to comply effectively with its own co-sponsored resolution, negative international responses with harsh repercussions cannot be ruled out
- The adoption of the new Constitution removing executive presidency, introducing essential electoral reforms, resolving minority grievances, improving rights and freedoms and tightening the governance framework as well as implementing the Indo Lanka Trade deal ETCA, will be opposed by the extremists
- With a pending cabinet reshuffle, the recent electioneering linked antagonism, follow up harsh exchange of words accusing each other of being the defaulting party in the coalition and above all attempts at forming alternative options for single party led governance arrangements will weaken the ability to effectively network and meet set objectives singing from the same hymn sheet. With the impending presidential campaign likely to begin by August 2019 , the time to heal wounds and carry through effective reforms that add long term value to the economy and mitigate short term risks of voter dissonance will be limited.
The Governor of Central Bank has clearly articulated the looming risks during his recent address following the regular economic review and stated “For the country to have a better outcome Sri Lanka needs political stability as quickly as possible. ….politics could affect sentiments, which lead to a reduction in investments and growth…..If the political situation leads to a loosening of fiscal policy, the Central Bank would have to lean against that and tighten monetary policy”.
Leaders in Governance, at least recognizing the looming risks of their actions, must even at this stage, place the interests of the nation and its people first, abandon power seeking initiatives for personal or party preservation/advancement and must post haste collectively and with the active engagement of all elected representatives on both sides of the Parliament set down to deliver on all pledges of the 2015 manifesto, especially
- Accountability for bad governance, fraud and corruption, poor law enforcement, abuse of power and other crimes by state authorities holding to account all those responsible in the past and present for corruption, waste, nepotism, violence, murder, excesses of law enforcement/armed forces and missing persons, and breakdown in law & order
- Rule of law and good governance led commitments through the enactment of the Audit Act, Codes of Conduct & Ethics for all in public office, Reform of Corruption and Assets Declaration Laws, Control of Election Spends, Enactment of Proceeds of Crime and Setting up a Serious Frauds Office etc must be implemented
- Constitutional Reforms through acceptable form of power devolution, abolition of the executive presidency, ensuring minority rights and human and socio economic rights of marginalized segments along with the independence and accountability of the chief accounting officers being strengthened.
- Priority national resource allocations made to alleviate the burdens facing marginalized, poor, conflict and disaster impacted households and those without basic, housing, water, electricity and sanitation facilities
- Development oriented public investments targeting skills and capability enhancement of youth and unemployed and livelihood generating agricultural and small and medium industry opportunities must be implemented
- Environmental/ecological sustainability and assuring clean air energy production/use must be promoted, whilst inland fisheries and sustainable exploitation of sea resources including the continental shelf receive focused attention.
- Export oriented local value enhancement and job creating foreign and local investments must be attracted and promoted
- Strict enforcement of fiscal discipline and public investments being implemented with economy, efficiency and effectiveness are a priority
- Strategically focused, balanced international relations, economic diplomacy and trade and investment policies must be in place
- Collective and Principled Leadership actions on a priority basis placing the interests of the nation and the people first must be a commitment
Continuing instability, infighting, arrogant and ego centric political action and personal and party oriented focus will drive this nation and its people to despair: and they will rise against such representatives and the end result will be a failed state with its people denied their rights of enjoyment, and options for growth and prosperity.
We in civil society must appeal, especially to our neighbor India, to apply pressure on our leadership to assure that a stable government committed to implement 2015 promises is back in governance soonest.
