Repercussions of the death of Maj.Gen Soleimani
By Miquelaa Fernando
On Friday the 3rd of January 2020, US President Donald Trump authorised a drone attack that assassinated top Iranian Military Leader Qasem Soleimani outside Baghdad International Airport, in Iraq. The news sent shockwaves across the globes and the ensuing repercussions are sure to be felt for years to come. Though this seems, quite literally, out of the blue to many people, tensions between Iran and America have been brewing for a while, needing only a catalyst to spill over. As the tension seems to be simmering down, a closer look at the possible consequences of this incident are being analysed all over the globe.
One of the main aspects of this analysis is the motive. The foundation of such an audacious move by the United States of America may lie in the Bush Doctrine of Former US President George. W. Bush, which was used for the Iraq invasion of 2003 as well. It states that it is “The responsibility of the US is to protect itself by promoting democracy where the terrorists are located so as to undermine the basis for terrorist activities.” This gives the US a mandate to cross into sovereign airspace and land so as to defend itself against “terrorism”. This was further bolstered by the USA Patriot Act giving law enforcement agencies broad powers to investigate, indict and bring terrorists to justice. Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was assassinated was in fact branded as a terrorist entity by the United States Government. However, the international community has been unable to agree on a universally accepted definition of the word “terrorist”, and the word may be used to brand people and organizations in different contexts.
In this case of the assassination of Major General Soleimani, President Donald Trump has justified his call for an attack because “He was planning a big attack, a bad attack for us. I don’t think anyone can complain about it.” However, this claim has been questioned by both the Congress in America as well as the international community, citing that concrete evidence of such a possible attack is yet to be offered by the President and his aides. Analysts of the situation claim that like most incidents, this is a subtle political move by President Donald Trump in order to overshadow his upcoming Senate impeachment trial and increase his popularity. This is not an entirely new idea. Former US President Bill Clinton ordered cruise missile strikes against Afghanistan and Sudan on August 20th 1998, in the midst of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, that saw him impeached.
The incident will greatly impact developments in America as well. This incident will take centre stage as Congress convenes on Monday, with the Democrat’s stating the impeachment and the assassination would be treated separately, vowing that the House would act swiftly and vote later in the week on a resolution to limit the scope of the President’s war-making powers in Iran. Meanwhile, amidst the already fraught political dynamic, the Republicans have begun to argue that the Democrats’ effort to oust Trump while he tended to matters of national security was irresponsible. In addition, with an upcoming presidential election as well, President Trump’s abrupt decision could be a political move to garner support through a frenzy of nationalism.
Internationally, the consequences of this incident continue to unfold, and ripple effects have already begun to show beginning with the economy. Our paradise island has been affected as well, with the stock market stumbling. Moreover, oil and gold prices have rocketed to record highs amid rumours of low supply from the middle east. Fears that the controversial Strait of Hormuz will be closed have been dispelled so far, by Suhail bin Mohammed Faraj Faris Al Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy and Industry. The Strait is a vital gateway for oil, which hugs the Iranian coast and with nearly 20% of the world’s oil travelling through it, has often been called the “jugular of the world’s economy”.Late last year, tensions escalated between Iran and America when a British oil tanker was captured by Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces in this very Strait. Various airline and shipping companies including SriLankan Airlines had to take precautionary measures by diverting from Iraninan airspace and waters. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is also expected to be affected as Iran is one of the top 5 tea exporters of Sri Lankan tea and exports of tea are predicted to decline.
Against the backdrop of Sri Lanka reviewing agreements such as ACSA and SOFA, this incident should be taken into account in great detail. The risks of military affiliation with the United States of America is shown in the example of Iraq, which ended up being the battleground for a conflict it had no part in. Should Sri Lanka risk the same? Echoing international sentiment, Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dr Mahathir Mohamad said it best, stating that
“We are no longer safe now. If anybody insults or says something that a person doesn’t like, then it is alright for that person of another country to send a drone and perhaps shoot at will.”
President Donald Trump has possibly not only violated international law, but has damaged the world’s economy, angered millions of people who have unified after months of protests, placed immense pressure on the Iranian government to satisfy the population’s demands for revenge, placed Iraq in an unenviable situation, and jeopardised the lives of millions of people all over the world. With great power comes great responsibility and US President Donald Trump will have to answer for his actions. Major General Qasem Soleimani may have been a ruthless military commander, who had killed civilians and enemies alike, but we can only hope that his death will be worth it.
